商學大講堂--張新雨：COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting in Europe: A Transfer Learning with Weights Model Averaging Approach

“商學大講堂“系列學術講座（第161講）

講座題目：COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting in Europe: A Transfer Learning with Weights Model Averaging Approach

主講嘉賓：張新雨

講座時間：2021年6月18日（星期五）16:00-18:00

講座地點：商學院116東方廳

歡迎感興趣的老師和同學參加！

商學院

2021年6月16日

主講嘉賓簡介

張新雨，中科院數學與系統科學研究院/預測中心研究員。在中科院系統所獲得博士學位，曾在TAMU做博士後研究。主要從事計量經濟學和統計學的理論和應用研究工作，具體研究方向包括模型平均、模型選擇和組合預測等。擔任期刊《Journal of Systems Science and Complexity》領域主編、期刊《SADM》、《系統科學與數學》、《應用概率統計》和《Econometrics》的副主編、編委或客座主編，雙法學會數據科學分會副理事長和國際統計學會當選會員。

講座主要内容

We forecast the daily confirmed new cases of the COVID-19 pandemic in major European countries using Transfer Learning (TL) and an model averaging (MA) approach. The TL-MA outperforms other single transfer learning models and provides accurate and stable forecasts. The forecasting is especially accurate for those countries which have implemented inadequate containment measures. For those countries which have adopted effective containment measures at earlier stages, all forecasting models lose certain a level of accuracy.